Executive Summary:

The year 2025 is poised to redefine the cybersecurity landscape, marked by a rapid evolution in both the sophistication of adversarial tactics and the complexity of the tools they wield. As organizations become increasingly reliant on interconnected systems, digital transformation initiatives, and globalized supply chains, they face an expanding attack surface that sophisticated threat actors are quick to exploit.

This dynamic environment necessitates that Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) teams remain vigilant, not only responding to immediate threats but also anticipating future developments. Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and deepfake capabilities are shifting the paradigm, enabling attackers to scale their operations with unprecedented precision and speed. Moreover, geopolitical tensions are fueling a rise in state-sponsored campaigns, blurring the lines between criminal and nation-state actors as collaboration between these groups grows.

By analyzing trends and incidents from recent years, such as the rise of ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS), supply chain attacks like SolarWinds, and AI-driven phishing campaigns, we can forecast significant changes in the cyber threat landscape. Predicting and preparing for these developments is critical for staying ahead of adversaries. CTI teams must adapt by integrating advanced technologies like machine learning for predictive analytics, enhancing collaboration with industry peers and government bodies, and fostering a culture of proactive risk management.

This report delves into key emerging trends for 2025, offering insights into areas such as AI-driven threats, evolving ransomware tactics, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the increasing weaponization of misinformation. By understanding these developments, organizations can build resilient defenses, ensuring they are not just reacting to today’s challenges but actively preparing for the threats of tomorrow.

This chart compares cyber threat trends from 2024 to predictions for 2025. Key observations include:

1. Ransomware Attacks: A notable increase, reflecting the growing sophistication of ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) and innovative extortion techniques.
2. Supply Chain Attacks: A rise due to attackers leveraging vulnerabilities in third-party vendors and software dependencies.
3. AI-Driven Phishing: Continued growth as adversaries employ AI for highly targeted phishing and spear-phishing attacks.
4. Deepfake Scams: Increasing use of deepfake technology in fraud, impersonation, and misinformation campaigns.
5. Critical Infrastructure Attacks: Heightened activity targeting energy grids, transportation systems, and healthcare.
6. State-Sponsored Espionage: Persistent growth, fueled by geopolitical tensions and advanced persistent threats (APTs).
7. Quantum Computing Risks: Although still minimal, risks associated with quantum breakthroughs are beginning to emerge.

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AI-Driven Cyber Threats

Current Examples:

• AI-Generated Phishing Scams Targeting Executives (2024): There has been a significant increase in hyper-personalized phishing attacks aimed at corporate executives, facilitated by AI tools. These scams utilize AI to analyze online profiles, crafting fraudulent emails that closely mimic the tone and style of legitimate communications, thereby evading traditional detection methods.
• AI-Enhanced Cyberattacks Leading to Record Highs (2024): The year 2024 witnessed a record number of cyberattacks, with economic losses doubling from the previous year, totaling €10 billion. AI has played a pivotal role in increasing the precision and personalization of these attacks, particularly through sophisticated phishing and vishing techniques.

Future Predictions:

• Proliferation of AI-Driven Cybercrime: The integration of AI into cybercriminal activities is expected to rise, leading to more sophisticated ransomware, phishing attacks, and business email compromise (BEC) schemes. This trend underscores the necessity for advanced AI-driven defenses to counteract these evolving threats.
• Autonomous AI-Powered Attacks: The development of AI technologies may enable autonomous cyber campaigns, where AI-driven bots adapt attacks in real-time based on the defenses they encounter, increasing the complexity and effectiveness of cyber threats.

CTI Implications:

• Integration of AI in Defense Mechanisms: CTI teams should adopt AI and machine learning tools for enhanced pattern recognition, anomaly detection, and predictive threat modeling to effectively counter AI-driven cyber threats.
• Investment in Adversarial AI Testing: Conducting adversarial AI testing (red-teaming) is crucial to identify and mitigate potential vulnerabilities that could be exploited by malicious AI, ensuring robust defense mechanisms are in place.

Geopolitical Cyber Warfare

Current Examples:

• Escalation of Geopolitical Cyber Tensions (2024): Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving China, the US, and the EU, have led to an increase in state-sponsored cyberattacks targeting political entities and critical infrastructure. These attacks are often aligned with geopolitical interests, aiming to disrupt, espionage, or influence public opinion.
• State-Sponsored Cyber Operations (2024): Nations such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have continued to engage in cyber espionage, cybercrime, and disinformation campaigns, intensifying the landscape of geopolitical cyber warfare.

Future Predictions:

• Intensification of Geopolitical Cyber Warfare: Geopolitical cyber warfare is expected to intensify, with the “Big Four” actors (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea) continuing to align espionage, cybercrime, and disinformation campaigns with their geopolitical interests.
• Escalation of Hacktivist Alliances: Cyberattacks driven by ideological or political agendas are predicted to escalate, targeting governments, businesses, and critical infrastructure, further complicating the geopolitical cyber landscape.

CTI Implications:

• Enhanced Geopolitical Threat Analysis: CTI teams must improve their geopolitical threat analysis capabilities to understand regional motives and potential attack vectors, enabling proactive defense strategies.
• Collaboration with National Security Agencies: Working closely with national security agencies is essential to gain insights into geopolitical cyber threats and to coordinate effective responses to state-sponsored cyber activities.

By staying informed about these evolving threats and implementing strategic measures, CTI teams can better anticipate and mitigate the risks posed by AI-driven cyber threats and geopolitical cyber warfare in 2025 and beyond.

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Geopolitical Cyber Warfare

Current Examples:

• Salt Typhoon Cyber Espionage Campaign (2024): In 2024, a sophisticated cyber espionage campaign attributed to China’s Ministry of State Security, known as Salt Typhoon, compromised major U.S. telecommunications providers, including AT&T, Verizon, Lumen Technologies, and T-Mobile. The attackers targeted core network components, enabling extensive surveillance capabilities. This breach is considered one of the most severe telecom hacks in U.S. history.
• Cyberattacks Following U.S. Presidential Election (2024): Following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, there has been an anticipated escalation in cyberattacks from nation-states such as China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. These adversaries are expected to leverage advanced techniques, including AI-driven methods, to target Western democracies’ critical infrastructure and political institutions.
• EU Sanctions Against Russian Cyber Activities (2024): The European Union is considering imposing sanctions on Russia in response to a series of cyberattacks, election interference, and misinformation campaigns. In 2024 alone, over 100 hybrid attacks have been recorded, targeting countries such as the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, and the UK. These actions have prompted the EU to deliberate on measures to counteract Russian hybrid threats.

Future Predictions:

• Intensification of Geopolitical Cyber Warfare: The “Big Four” nation-state actors—Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—are expected to continue aligning cyber espionage, cybercrime, and disinformation campaigns with their geopolitical interests. This alignment will likely result in increased cyber operations targeting critical infrastructure, financial systems, and military assets in Western democracies.
• Expansion of Hacktivist Alliances: Cyberattacks driven by ideological or political agendas are predicted to escalate, with hacktivist groups forming alliances to target governments, businesses, and critical infrastructure. These groups may exploit geopolitical tensions to advance their causes, leading to a more complex threat landscape.

CTI Implications:

Proactive Defense Posture: Adopting a proactive defense strategy, including threat hunting and continuous monitoring, can help detect and mitigate sophisticated cyber threats before they cause significant harm. Investing in advanced threat detection technologies and maintaining a state of readiness are essential components of this approach.

Enhanced Geopolitical Threat Analysis: CTI teams must deepen their understanding of the geopolitical landscape to anticipate and identify cyber threats linked to nation-state actors. This involves monitoring international relations and assessing how geopolitical developments may influence cyber threat activity.

Collaboration with National Security Agencies: Strengthening partnerships with national security agencies is crucial for sharing intelligence and coordinating responses to state-sponsored cyber threats. Such collaboration can enhance situational awareness and improve the effectiveness of defensive measures.

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Collaboration Between State Actors and Criminal Organizations

Current Examples:

• Russian Collaboration with Cybercriminals (2024): Recent reports indicate that Russian state-affiliated threat actors have outsourced certain cyberespionage operations to criminal groups, particularly in campaigns targeting Ukraine. This collaboration has enabled more extensive and effective cyber operations against Ukrainian military and governmental entities.
• North Korean Cryptocurrency Theft (2024): North Korean hackers have stolen over $3 billion in cryptocurrency since 2017, funding state initiatives like nuclear programs. Microsoft identified active North Korean threat actor groups targeting cryptocurrency and deploying ransomware, demonstrating the growing collaboration between nation-state threat actors and cybercriminals.

Future Predictions:

• Increased Collaboration Between Nation-States and Cybercriminals: The integration of cybercriminal tactics by nation-state actors is expected to rise, leading to more sophisticated and financially motivated cyber operations. This trend underscores the necessity for advanced AI-driven defenses to counteract these evolving threats.
• Hybrid Campaigns Combining Financial Theft and Geopolitical Objectives: Nation-state actors are anticipated to increasingly collaborate with cybercriminals to conduct operations for financial gain, enlist cybercriminals to collect intelligence, and make use of the same tools favored by the cybercriminal community.

CTI Implications:

Intelligence Sharing and Collaboration: Strengthening information-sharing networks between private sector entities and government agencies is crucial. Collaborative efforts can facilitate early detection and intervention in hybrid cyber campaigns, mitigating the impact of these sophisticated threats.ps to identify potential geopolitical motives and partnerships, with shared intelligence to facilitate early intervention.

Enhanced Profiling of Criminal Groups: CTI teams should focus on identifying potential geopolitical motives and partnerships within cybercriminal organizations. This involves analyzing the tools, tactics, and procedures (TTPs) employed to detect overlaps with known nation-state methodologies.

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Evolution of Ransomware Tactics

Current Examples:

• AlphV Attacks on Healthcare Systems (2024): The ransomware group AlphV, also known as BlackCat, executed devastating attacks on healthcare systems, causing widespread chaos and disrupting patient care. These incidents highlight the increasing targeting of critical infrastructure by ransomware operators.
• Schneider Electric Cyberattack (2024): In November 2024, Schneider Electric, a leading energy management and automation company, suffered a cyberattack where hackers claimed to have accessed over 40 gigabytes of critical data. The attackers, identified as the Hellcat group, demanded a $125,000 ransom. This incident underscores the vulnerability of industrial sectors to ransomware threats.

Future Predictions:

• Multi-Layered Extortion Tactics: Ransomware groups are expected to adopt more complex extortion strategies, combining data encryption, theft, and threats of public exposure or prolonged denial-of-service attacks to maximize pressure on victims.
• Expansion into IoT and OT Environments: Ransomware campaigns are anticipated to increasingly target Internet of Things (IoT) and Operational Technology (OT) systems, leading to potential physical disruptions in sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, and utilities.

CTI Implications:

Proactive Threat Hunting and Incident Response: Investing in proactive threat hunting and establishing robust incident response plans are essential to effectively counter the evolving tactics of ransomware groups and minimize potential disruptions.CTI Implications: A focus on network segmentation, immutable backups, and real-time monitoring of exfiltration to mitigate these threats.

Enhanced Monitoring and Defense Strategies: Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) teams should implement advanced monitoring tools and develop comprehensive defense strategies to detect and mitigate ransomware attacks, particularly those targeting critical infrastructure and IoT/OT environments.

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Hybridization Between Criminal Actors and Nation-State Actors

The evolving cyber threat landscape reveals a growing hybridization between criminal actors and nation-state entities. This collaboration leverages the unique capabilities of each group, blending the operational agility of cybercriminals with the strategic objectives of state-sponsored operations. A key mechanism enabling this hybridization is the role of Initial Access Brokers (IABs) and the subsequent use of Living Off the Land (LOTL) tactics by nation-state actors.

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Current Trends and Examples:

• Initial Access Brokers (IABs):
• What They Do: IABs specialize in identifying, exploiting, and selling access to compromised systems. This service often includes credentials, remote desktop protocol (RDP) connections, or VPN logins.
• Criminal Use: Ransomware operators frequently purchase access from IABs to expedite their campaigns, minimizing reconnaissance and intrusion time.
• Nation-State Pivot: Nation-state actors increasingly leverage these same IAB services to acquire pre-compromised access to strategic targets. This approach reduces operational exposure and allows for rapid pivoting to advanced techniques.

Examples:

• Black Basta Collaboration (2024): This ransomware group reportedly sold access data to a state-affiliated actor, enabling a breach of a defense contractor. The nation-state actor then used this foothold to conduct a data exfiltration operation disguised as ransomware activity.
• LockBit-to-Espionage Chain (2024): In an incident targeting the pharmaceutical industry, LockBit ransomware affiliates provided access credentials to an unidentified state-sponsored actor, who subsequently engaged in intellectual property theft.

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Living Off the Land (LOTL) Techniques:

Once access is obtained via IABs, nation-state actors often employ LOTL tactics to maintain persistence and minimize detection. LOTL refers to the use of legitimate system tools and processes for malicious purposes, blending seamlessly with normal operations.

• Common LOTL Tactics:
• PowerShell Abuse: Running scripts for data exfiltration or lateral movement.
• WMI (Windows Management Instrumentation): Executing payloads and managing compromised systems covertly.
• Existing Credentials: Using legitimate credentials to navigate systems without triggering alarms.

Examples:

• APT41’s LOTL in Healthcare (2024): After acquiring initial access credentials from a criminal broker, APT41 deployed PowerShell scripts to exfiltrate patient records while avoiding detection by endpoint detection and response (EDR) systems.

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Future Implications and Predictions:

• Deeper Integration of Criminal Ecosystems and State Agendas:
• Nation-states will increasingly exploit IABs to mask their activities as financially motivated cybercrime, complicating attribution.
• Criminal groups may receive technical training or tools from state actors, further enhancing their capabilities.
• Advanced LOTL Techniques:
• LOTL tactics will evolve to exploit emerging technologies like AI for script obfuscation and adaptive malware, increasing stealth.

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CTI Recommendations:

1. Enhanced Detection of IAB Activity:

• Monitor criminal marketplaces for indicators of IAB activity linked to high-value targets, focusing on sectors likely to attract nation-state interest (e.g., critical infrastructure, healthcare, defense).

1. Behavioral Analysis for LOTL Detection:

• Deploy advanced behavioral analytics to identify anomalies that indicate the use of LOTL techniques, such as unusual PowerShell usage or lateral movement patterns.

1. Attribution and Intelligence Sharing:

• Strengthen collaboration between private and public sectors to attribute hybrid campaigns accurately, ensuring a coordinated response to these sophisticated threats.

By understanding and mitigating the hybridization of criminal and nation-state actors, organizations can better protect themselves against this increasingly complex threat vector.

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Current Examples:

• Blue Yonder Ransomware Attack (2024): In November 2024, Blue Yonder, a prominent supply chain software provider, suffered a ransomware attack that disrupted operations for several retailers, including Starbucks and UK grocery chains Morrisons and Sainsbury’s. The incident led to system outages affecting services like schedule management and payroll, forcing companies to implement manual workarounds and contingency plans.
• Stop & Shop Cybersecurity Incident (2024): In November 2024, Stop & Shop experienced product shortages across its stores following a cybersecurity incident that disrupted its supply chain and delivery operations. The company detected the issue affecting technology systems, including pharmacy and e-commerce operations, and collaborated with external cybersecurity experts and law enforcement to investigate. The disruptions led to shortages in fresh produce, meat, and dairy products in stores across Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

Future Predictions:

• Increased Focus on Software Dependencies: As organizations continue to rely on third-party software and open-source components, attackers are expected to target these dependencies by introducing malicious code into developers’ environments. This strategy allows adversaries to compromise applications at the source, potentially affecting a wide range of downstream users.
• Large-Scale Attacks on Cloud Providers and SaaS Platforms: The centralized nature of cloud services and Software as a Service (SaaS) platforms makes them attractive targets for cybercriminals. Exploiting vulnerabilities in these environments could enable attackers to impact multiple clients simultaneously, leading to widespread operational disruptions and data breaches.

CTI Implications:

Mandating Software Bill of Materials (SBOM): Requiring suppliers to provide a comprehensive list of all components within their software solutions enhances transparency and allows organizations to identify and manage risks associated with third-party dependencies. An SBOM facilitates quicker responses to vulnerabilities discovered in specific software components.plementing zero-trust principles, and mandating SBOM (Software Bill of Materials) for all partners.

Proactive Auditing of Vendor Security Practices: Organizations must conduct thorough assessments of their suppliers’ and partners’ cybersecurity measures to ensure they meet robust security standards. Regular audits can help identify potential vulnerabilities within the supply chain before they are exploited by malicious actors.

Implementation of Zero-Trust Principles: Adopting a zero-trust security model, which involves verifying all users and devices attempting to access network resources, can mitigate risks associated with supply chain vulnerabilities. This approach limits the potential impact of a compromised supplier by enforcing strict access controls.

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Weaponization of Deepfakes and Misinformation

Current Examples:

• AI-Generated Election Disinformation (2024): In the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Russian and Iranian entities employed AI tools to create and disseminate manipulated videos and deepfake content aimed at undermining candidates and sowing discord among voters. These operations involved hosting numerous websites to spread fabricated narratives, highlighting the increasing use of AI in sophisticated disinformation campaigns.
• AI-Generated Phishing Scams Targeting Executives (2024): There has been a significant increase in hyper-personalized phishing attacks aimed at corporate executives, facilitated by AI tools. These scams utilize AI to analyze online profiles, crafting fraudulent emails that closely mimic the tone and style of legitimate communications, thereby evading traditional detection methods.

Future Predictions:

• Deepfakes in Business Email Compromise (BEC) Schemes: The integration of deepfake technology into BEC attacks is anticipated to rise, enabling cybercriminals to impersonate executives with convincing audio and video. This advancement will make scams more believable, increasing the likelihood of unauthorized financial transactions and data breaches.
• AI-Generated Propaganda by Nation-States: Nation-state actors are expected to increasingly utilize AI to produce persuasive propaganda, aiming to destabilize public trust in democratic institutions, healthcare systems, and societal structures globally. The sophistication of AI-generated content will make it challenging to distinguish between authentic and fabricated information, amplifying its impact.

CTI Implications:

Policy Development and Regulatory Compliance: Engaging in policy development and ensuring compliance with emerging regulations related to AI and deepfake technologies will be vital. CTI teams should stay informed about legal frameworks to effectively navigate the evolving landscape of AI-driven threats.CTI Implications: Development of forensic tools for deepfake detection and active monitoring of social platforms for misinformation.

Development of Forensic Tools for Deepfake Detection: Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) teams must invest in advanced forensic technologies capable of identifying AI-generated manipulations in audio, video, and text. Implementing these tools is essential to detect and mitigate the impact of deepfake-driven deception.

Active Monitoring of Social Platforms for Misinformation: Continuous surveillance of social media and online platforms is crucial to identify and counteract the spread of AI-generated misinformation. Collaborating with platform providers and employing AI-driven monitoring solutions can enhance the detection of coordinated disinformation campaigns.

Employee Training and Awareness Programs: Organizations should implement comprehensive training programs to educate employees about the risks associated with deepfakes and AI-generated misinformation. Enhancing awareness can reduce susceptibility to sophisticated social engineering attacks.

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Quantum Computing Threats

Current Examples:

• Advancements in Quantum Computing Capabilities (2024): In 2024, significant progress has been made in quantum computing, with companies like Google unveiling new quantum chips capable of solving complex problems in minutes. These developments underscore the potential of quantum computers to revolutionize various fields, including cryptography.
• NIST’s Release of Post-Quantum Encryption Standards (2024): The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has finalized its principal set of encryption algorithms designed to withstand cyberattacks from quantum computers. These standards are ready for immediate use, marking a significant step toward securing digital communications against future quantum threats.

Future Predictions:

• Potential Obsolescence of Current Cryptographic Schemes: As quantum computing technology continues to advance, there is a growing concern that current encryption methods, such as RSA and ECC, could become obsolete. Quantum computers have the potential to break these encryption schemes, posing a significant threat to data security.
• Prioritization of Quantum-Resistant Algorithms: In anticipation of the quantum threat, there is an increasing emphasis on developing and adopting quantum-resistant algorithms. High-value targets, including financial institutions and government agencies, are expected to prioritize the implementation of these algorithms to safeguard sensitive information.

CTI Implications:

Monitoring Advancements in Quantum Computing: Continuous monitoring of advancements in quantum computing is essential for CTI teams. Understanding the evolving capabilities of quantum technology will enable organizations to assess potential risks and implement appropriate countermeasures to protect against emerging threats.nd monitoring advancements in quantum computing by adversarial states.

Transition to Quantum-Safe Encryption: Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) teams should proactively plan and execute the transition to quantum-safe encryption methods. This involves staying informed about the latest developments in post-quantum cryptography and ensuring that security infrastructures are updated accordingly.

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Here is a list of sources for all the sections in hyperlink format for each section:

AI-Driven Cyber Threats

• AI-Generated Phishing Scams Targeting Executives
• AI-Enhanced Cyberattacks Leading to Record Highs

Geopolitical Cyber Warfare

• Salt Typhoon Cyber Espionage Campaign
• Cyberattacks Following U.S. Presidential Election
• EU Sanctions Against Russian Cyber Activities

Collaboration Between State Actors and Criminal Organizations

• Russian Collaboration with Cybercriminals
• North Korean Cryptocurrency Theft

Evolution of Ransomware Tactics

• AlphV Attacks on Healthcare Systems
• Schneider Electric Cyberattack

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

• Blue Yonder Ransomware Attack
• Stop & Shop Cybersecurity Incident

Weaponization of Deepfakes and Misinformation

• AI-Generated Election Disinformation
• AI-Generated Phishing Scams Targeting Executives

Quantum Computing Threats

• Advancements in Quantum Computing Capabilities
• NIST’s Release of Post-Quantum Encryption Standards
• ‘Q Day’ Is Coming. It’s Time to Worry About Quantum Security