The more excited we are as developers, the more we have to worry about knowledge workers

July 4, 2025

I think, looking back, we might say that the first week of July 2025 was the start of AGI. Like, proto-AGI. All because of Claude Code.

It feels like it hit critical mass in terms of people using it and people realizing how powerful it is.

What struck me waking up this morning was how this excitement is like a blade for a handle.

Think about how excited I am right now as a builder/developer. Well, that's how excited business owners are going to be about how many people they can replace.

In other words, this giant surge in power we just felt pulse through the world of AI development is going to mean far more jobs lost, and far faster.

I'm still excited. But I'm increasingly feeling like Harold the Pain Guy, smiling through the existential dread.

I'm starting to think there's a very real chance of a recession starting in 2026 or 2027, and it will be because of AI.

Yes, AI will produce extraordinary improvements in productivity. We'll be able to make way more stuff. And faster. And that for sure will lead to lots of positive things.

But will it offset the potential loss of hundreds of thousands—or maybe even millions—of jobs?

I don't see how it can. As I keep saying, I don't see the point of all this new amazing stuff if people are losing their jobs and suffering. Which also happens to mean fewer people can afford to buy the stuff being made.

And again, I'm not saying this as some sort of statement that we should change course. We can't. This is happening. I just want to have my eyes open, and hopefully be able to help some people see and adjust along the way.