The Euro Crisis and Germany - or "The tale of the shoemaker, the baker, and his wife"
2012-07-07 00:01:00 Author: addxorrol.blogspot.com(查看原文) 阅读量:51 收藏
tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post3268385716691575678..comments2020-09-19T00:51:49.311-07:00Comments on ADD / XOR / ROL: The Euro Crisis and Germany - or "The tale of the shoemaker, the baker, and his wife"halvar.flakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486016980670992738[email protected]Blogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-12446642252166692552012-07-23T00:32:38.495-07:002012-07-23T00:32:38.495-07:00This tale is well written, but wrong. First, mar...This tale is well written, but wrong. <br /><br />First, markets are statistical phenomena. You can&#39;t understand markets by looking at a small number of transactions between a small number of parties. You&#39;d miss the power of small changes if everyone performs them, as well as the irrelevance of individual behaviors if everyone else doesn&#39;t think so. <br /><br />Second, yout don&#39;t even try to build realistic behavior into your actors (which should really be classes of actors). Typical reactions of a shoemaker with demand problems will be, roughly in that order: try advertising, try modifying the products and services offered, try to cut cost, and if all else fails, go out of business. <br /><br />Third, you seem to assume that the baker lends money without risk management and without alternative. In reality there will be more attractive investments than loans to a semi-bancrupt shoemaker. The baker might buy Google stock or real estate or helium or build a solar plant in the desert.<br /><br />I see too many bugs here, I&#39;ll wait for v2.Sven Türpehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05454738684437991119[email protected]tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-91758553656423818872012-07-21T12:10:11.053-07:002012-07-21T12:10:11.053-07:00Hi, The big problem in the EU situation is that t...Hi,<br /><br />The big problem in the EU situation is that the different countries cannot just reate an amount of money (which has to be reasonnable amounts to not devaluate too much the money). Any other country in the world creates money for state use, infrastructures, etc...<br />In the EU, the ECB creates money, and lends it directly to private banks, for a near zero rate. The private banks then lend this money to the different states for rates of 3-15% (dependant on some obscure rating agencies). Of course, lending a state budget at 15% is not sustainable, basically, after some 10 years, all the EU states BELONG TO private banks. That is the case now, we are 10 years into the euro...<br /><br />F 4 ERUf4eruhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16390495186328521090[email protected]tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-29181378592860492522012-07-20T01:41:01.630-07:002012-07-20T01:41:01.630-07:00xlk: I don&#39;t think we&#39;re talking about a K...xlk: I don&#39;t think we&#39;re talking about a Keynesian logic of social good through spending here, rather of social good through bilateral trade.halvar.flakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12486016980670992738[email protected]tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-70868252516772679332012-07-20T01:39:21.253-07:002012-07-20T01:39:21.253-07:00Ofek: By practicing a one-sided policy of wage res...Ofek: By practicing a one-sided policy of wage restraint you effectively reduce imports from all other players, as you reduce overall consumption.halvar.flakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12486016980670992738[email protected]tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-24963965891423892372012-07-18T00:52:04.634-07:002012-07-18T00:52:04.634-07:00I do not see how you can tie purchasing of goods a...I do not see how you can tie purchasing of goods and services to social responsibility. Those two are entirely different things and I am dismayed to see a very smart man such as yourself to tell the usual poor Keynesian logic of social good through spending in allegorical terms. They simply do not relate. The survival of any robust economical system depends on both the shoemaker and the baker being flushed. They eventually will be flushed no matter how far you go with spending to delay that outcome. Robustness is a feature of diversity. Diversity survives flushes and technocratic utopias don&#39;t. Easily proven fact.xlkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920588357057787698[email protected]tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-52575140994792467732012-07-14T12:09:58.294-07:002012-07-14T12:09:58.294-07:00Not sure I understand. Did Germany cut down import...Not sure I understand. Did Germany cut down import from, say, Greece? When? Import of what?Ofek Shilonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08928704124269681648[email protected]tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-30199489798942772572012-07-14T12:08:24.444-07:002012-07-14T12:08:24.444-07:00Not sure I understand. Did Germany artificially re...Not sure I understand. Did Germany artificially reduced import from (say) Greece? Import of what? when?Ofek Shilonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08928704124269681648[email protected]tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-77999636321577467782012-07-08T15:17:27.389-07:002012-07-08T15:17:27.389-07:00@irve: Yes, by all means :-) I&#39;d be super happ...@irve: Yes, by all means :-) I&#39;d be super happy with an estonian translation :-)halvar.flakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12486016980670992738[email protected]tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-48841332482647717142012-07-06T13:34:34.697-07:002012-07-06T13:34:34.697-07:00This is elegant. May I translate this into Estonia...This is elegant. May I translate this into Estonian with linkback?irvehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11521878371836844935[email protected]tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-41653529528135499222012-07-06T08:16:55.078-07:002012-07-06T08:16:55.078-07:00I like the parable. :) I&#39;m from the US, and I...I like the parable. :) I&#39;m from the US, and I&#39;m afraid we&#39;re acting like the baker as well. We could use some nice new kicks about now.rachel.engelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15426755304649244745[email protected]tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14114712.post-19741862104693242512012-07-06T08:15:30.943-07:002012-07-06T08:15:30.943-07:00I like the parable. :) I&#39;m from the US, and I...I like the parable. :) I&#39;m from the US, and I&#39;m afraid we&#39;re acting like the baker as well. We could use some nice new kicks about now.rachel.engelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15426755304649244745[email protected]

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